Bluffing is always one of the most interesting topics in poker, and it’s often one where people are unsure why or if they should do it. I have seen a lot of players just “mandatory” bluffing missed draws on every outcome, but this is a mistake as they are one of the worst bluffs you want to have, and here is why:
Theory
In theory, we want to construct our range based on the value hands it has. What that means is that the number of bluffs we have must be relative to the number of value hands we have in our range or in the line we took. So if we use a pot-size bet and we give our opponent 2-to-1 odds to call, we need to have 50 percent fewer bluffs than we have value hands, and we should also have hands that we want to show down. If we don’t follow this ratio, we are exposed to exploitation, but we should adjust the ratio to exploit our opponents if the opportunity presents itself.
This is one of the situations that happen often: players overbluff with their missed draws because they don’t have enough value bets in that line. The other reason why missed draws are bad bluffs is that we are taking away missed draws from our opponent by holding one, so we are increasing the chance of getting called as we remove his trash and improve his value-trash ratio.
Example
If we take a look at a spot where the button opened, bet flop, overbet turn, and has a decision what to bluff on the river vs the big blind on board that ran Q♦5♠3♥9♦3♠, we can see that the worst options to bluff are cards like J♦, 10♦ or jacks and tens in general.
We can see in the image below that the solver recommends a pure check strategy with these hands, and it selects them as the worst bluffing hands from all possible hands we have, as the expected value (EV) of checking is significantly higher than the EV of bluffing (which is negative).
Some of the missed flush draws are also mandatory bluffs, and this is because they block the opponent’s value and unblock his air. For example, 6♦4♦ unblocks all of the jack and ten combos our opponent can have, making him have fewer hands to bluff catch against our bluffs. It also removes 4♦3♦ that he will have as a value hand.
This shows us that only specific missed draws are good bluffs, and we must be very selective. On the other hand, to have enough bluffs to follow our value, we can reduce the bad ones, which have more EV when checking than bluffing, with the ones that are the opposite, which have more EV when we use them as bluffs.
In the image above, we can see how many more EV combos our opponents have that don’t block flush draws. J♣4♣ has an EV of 0.45, which translates to 45bb/100 hands, compared to J♦4♦, which is losing -4bb/100 hands. These “small” differences accumulate in each spot and make a huge difference in the long run, and they can make a losing player a winning player.
Conclusion
- Balancing the number of value and bluffs keeps our range in check and protected from being exploited
- Picking the right bluffs can be day and night difference in the winrate of a player in the long term
- Missed draws are overbluffed by players, and it’s one of the common mistakes
- Worst hands that unblock draws have much higher EV of betting than checking, so bet your trash
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