Doug Polk published a video on his YouTube channel announcing that he would try to make $100,000 in 30 days and prove that the online poker dream is still alive. He plans to play 1 table for most of the challenge and give away 100 percent of his winnings.
Doug referred to a video of Patrick Leonard talking in a podcast about how today’s poker environment doesn’t give upcoming poker players the confidence to become professionals because there are many cases of Real-Time Assistance (RTA) and other forms of cheating. Polk said he disagrees with the perspective “bink or cheat” Leonard described, but acknowledges the challenges online poker faces. Despite this, he wants to prove that the poker dream isn’t quite dead yet.
But despite his confidence, I don’t think Doug will succeed in this challenge, and I’ll explain why.
Previously Failed Challenges From Privileged Positions
If we go back to Doug’s previous challenges, they were not very successful, and he wasn’t very committed to them. Some of the challenges ($100 to $10,000) lasted over two years (60 sessions) before he reached the goal of $10,000. That can’t be seen as a success, as poker players can’t only pick the 60 best days to play their A-game and perform, but they do it day after day even when they don’t feel like it and are not fresh but burned out.
This challenge is going to take only 30 days, so Polk may be fully committed to it, but even if he wins $100,000, does it prove that the poker dream is still alive? I don’t think it does.
Doug is a millionaire who owns one of the top coaching sites with access to all the best coaches in the world, who can coach him, give him data about the pool he is playing in, make all the analysis of the sessions he played, and tell him what mistakes he is doing and where he should deviate.
The other advantage he has is that he can take shots at higher limits/higher variance spots without thinking about losses and can do it more aggressively. This means he can increase the variance in his favor to reach the $100,000 mark, and if he loses money, it doesn’t matter; he can rebuy virtually unlimited times until the goal is reached.
If he loses money playing poker, he will make it back through the content he creates, sponsorship, and affiliate signups of WPT Global, and all that is fine, but this challenge just doesn’t replicate the real poker grind or prove whether the poker dream is still alive.
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Dan Polk – Doug Bilzerian
My bet is that Doug fails the challenge (changes the rules/doesn’t reach the goal) and realizes that his perspective about poker is starting to look similar to one that Dan Bilzerian has. You sit at the table, and people are all-in with seven-duce every hand, and you close your eyes and click call. You wake up, and you won $10.8 million in a single night of playing poker.
(In November 2013, Bilzerian posted an unconfirmed claim that he won $10.8 million from a single night of playing poker, and in 2014 he claimed to have won $50 million throughout the year, adding that he “doesn’t play against professionals anymore and the most he’s ever lost in a single session is $3.6 million.” …)
What is The Real Poker Dream?
The real poker dream isn’t the dream Polk is talking about—how you can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 30 days. The real poker dream is that you can play this beautiful game for a living and master a skill that can give you the freedom to travel the world, sit at the poker table at almost any casino in the world, sit in any bar, McDonald’s, or hotel that has a Wi-Fi connection, and make money.
It doesn’t have to be $100,000 in 30 days; it can be $25,000 in a year, $50,000 the following year, and $100,000 the year after. The dream is enjoyment in the freedom and the process, not a “get rich overnight” delusion.
One of the best poker players of all time, Linus Love said “I know a lot of you guys and a lot of my non-poker friends are thinking,’ Wtf is this creepy dude doing alone in Malta playing only poker and not going to the beach / going out every day?’, but honestly, I don’t care about this. I was going to Malta to play poker, immensely improve my game, and make some money, and I think I definitely achieved that, and I’m happy with how it all went.”
He mentioned that he loved playing poker every day, all day, and he had days when he played 14,000 hands and won 18 buy-ins ($1,800), which is entirely opposite of what Polk is suggesting as “the real poker dream.”
Linus enjoyed the process while still having a long-term goal in mind, and this is the best way to achieve it.
