A few weeks ago on PokerGO’s High Stakes Poker, Alan Keating and Peter collided in one of the most amazing hands ever played on air. Both of them are known as action players who don’t like to fold, and this is exactly what we have in this hand. Let’s break down what exactly happened in this monster $911,000 hand! The blinds were $500/$1,000, and the game was No-Limit Hold ’em.
Preflop Action
Steve opened from CO to $1,400 with 8♠6♣, which is a bit wide, and it’s probably losing money in this game (or any other) where players defend wide; Peter called on the BTN with 6♠3♠ which is also not great especially since they are playing 900 bb deep and higher ones could dominate his potential low flushes. Keating called in BB with 9♦7♦, which seems fine. The pot was $4,800.
The Flop Breakdown
The flop came A♣7♠K♠, and this board should hit Steve’s range the best since he is the only player whose range is not capped, as the other two players didn’t 3-bet. Keating correctly checked out of position (OOP), and Peter fired a bet of $4,000, which is not great considering he is multiway against two sticky players who can have hands like Ax, Kx, gutshots, and two pairs on this board. Peter raised to $13,000 with his flushdraw, which I consider non-optimal for the reasons mentioned before. Low flushes don’t perform great in super deep stack poker, but he has a position over two players and a decent hand overall.
Keating responds with a crazy 3-bet to $41,000 with basically just a 7x blocker to a set, and he is unblocking the flush draw hands. He also knows that Peter’s range is capped, but Steve can still have A7, AK, AKs, K7s, AA, KK, 77, A♠Q♠, and other suited combos of A♠, so Keating’s play is bad in theory. Fortunately for Keating, Steve had air and folded, but Peter called. The pot was $90,800.
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The Turn Breakdown
A 6♥ hit the turn, which should be a total brick following the action. Both players may have A♠6♠ and improve, but it’s just one combo, and there is a chance they wouldn’t raise it on the flop as you want to have as many people you can to pay you off once you hit the nuts, but there is also merit in building a pot with nut flush draw when you play this deep.
Keating bets more than half the pot ($58,000), which is weird sizing as he should be following his super strong action on the flop with a bigger bet, since he wants to have a stack-to-pot ratio (SPR) closer to 1 on the river, with the range he is representing. If he used overbet to $125,000, the pot would be around $340,000 if called, and he would have $285,000 behind, putting the pressure on Peter’s low flush draw and Ax hands that didn’t make two pair, while also making his potential shove on the river more natural and forcing Peter to pay him off wider.
Peter gained more potential outs hitting the six on the turn and realized that Keating’s sizing was on the weak side, so he raised to $175,000, which is also a mistake as he could be close to drawing dead against stronger flushes. Some of his outs could actually not be outs in case the board pairs and Keating has a set or two pairs. Implied odds are not looking good, so Keating calls. The pot was $440,800.
The River Breakdown
The dealer opened 4♥ river, which is similar to the six on the turn, a brick improving only A♠4♠. Keating checked, and Peter shoved, putting Keating all-in for the remaining $235,000. At first glance, an easy fold for Keating.
The shove from Peter seems natural but weird, as his showdown value with six is almost non-existent. Also, having 6♠ removes A♠6♠ from Keating’s range, and the “only” strong hands played in that way that Keating should have are A7o, A7s, and K7s, 77, A♠4♠, which comes to 19 combos that can call. He has hands that should fold like A♠10♠, A♠9♠, A♠8♠, A♠5♠, A♠2♠, (A♠J♠ and A♠Q♠ should squeeze preflop), J♠10♠, and Q♠J♠ which comes to 7 combos.
In theory, Peter is only behind five hand combos that he could potentially fold out by shoving, while 19 combos would call and have him beat. So shove seems like a mistake, and it would be better to save money and beat Q♠J♠ and J♠10♠ at showdown.
In the end, Keating makes the bad call in theory as he is only beating missed flush draws, of which some shouldn’t even bluff, so the value/bluff ratio is weighted heavily towards value. But in reality, Keating is right, and this call looks like something from a movie, one of the most interesting hands ever played. He even said before calling, “Maybe the best or worst played hand of all time,” and he was right twice again. It’s both the worst and the best hand. Keating won the pot of $911,000.
After Keating made the call, Peter just laughed it off, but I am sure he couldn’t believe it and made a mental note to only go for value against the calling station in the future. Even though both players made mistakes, I think Peter’s play is by far better in this hand as he put pressure on Keating’s capped range while still having outs and equity. He was just unlucky. Keating woke up and saw into the Matrix that day.
Lesson: Don’t bluff against calling stations, especially if they are rich.
- Hand Breakdown: Alan Keating’s $2.44 Million Pot Win on Hustler Casino Live
- Hand Breakdown: Daniel Negreanu Goes For Three Barrel Bluff, Exploiting Adelstein?
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